Thursday, December 31, 2020

Betting on the 2020 US presidential election *after* the election

A couple weeks after the 2020 US presidential election was held, Nate Silver tweeted several times about the irrationality of betting markets (for example PredictIt), since they still had a 10% chance of Trump wining various states.

Screenshot of tweet - text of tweet: Political betting markets still give Trump a >10% chance, both nationally and in several states where *results have been certified*. As I've said before, it's a bit alarming there are so many delusional people out there that the market equilibrium is this detached from reality. Tweet contains screenshot of betting market odds / map of US colored by odds of who wins each state.

Other versions of this tweet talked about "free money" and "money left on the table".  I decided to try it out for myself discovering along the way that Nate failed to take into account transaction costs and market limits/barriers that contribute substantially to maker distortion.  In other words, it's not solely as Nate says irrational people, but also other well know sources of market inefficiencies..
Read more »
Posted by at 2 comments:

Thursday, December 24, 2020

using LaTex in blogger

 Bit of a meta post here - how I use LaTex formatting for math / equations in blogger.  Starting with this Stack Exchange TEX question/answer, I copied the provided code to load the MathJax library and then followed these blogger/google instructions in the section "change your blog with HTML or css", in the html section - edited the blog template, added the code copied from above into the <head> section.  Seems to be working now:

$$a^2 + b^2 = c^2$$

$$y(x) = sin(\omega x)$$

$$c^2 = a^2 + b^2 - 2ab \cos(c)$$

Posted by at No comments:

hello world physics - part 1 classical mechanics

I've been struggling to understand General Relativity - the theory that describes gravity - for a long time now.  One thing I realized might help is a very simple example - solving a very simple, recognizable problem using general relativity.  In an analogy with software engineering, I'm looking for how write "hello world" in new programming language.

For the equivalent of programming's "hello world" in physics, I'm going to choose the problem of tossing a ball up into the air.  I'm going to solve this problem using 4 different types of physics:  classical/Newtonian, quantum mechanics, general relativity, and quantum electrodynamics.  I hope this will give me (and you perhaps) a better understanding of the differences and similarities between these theories, and some practical understanding of how one uses / applies them.

Read more »
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)